Must-win teams yesterday
Teams our model gives at least a 62% chance of winning, at bookmaker prices between 1.20 and 1.90. Strongest first.
Last 30 days: 84% of our top 1X2 picks won (250 of 299). Full record
FT
Qingdao Jonoon
Sichuan Jiuniu
22
H 11%D 14%A 75%
111.00X7.0021.20
xG3.4GG60%
2 ✗Sichuan Jiuniu to win75% · @1.20
FT
Viking
KFUM Oslo
51
H 74%D 16%A 10%
11.28X6.2528.00
xG3.5GG58%
1 ✓Viking to win74% · @1.28
FT
Iraklis 1908
Panathinaikos
12
H 7%D 18%A 74%
110.00X5.2521.28
xG2.7GG50%
2 ✓Panathinaikos to win74% · @1.28
FT
Sabah FA
Şamaxı FK
22
H 74%D 17%A 9%
11.22X5.0029.50
xG3.0GG53%
1 ✗Sabah FA to win74% · @1.22
FT
Sokol Lanžhot
Nové Sady
42
H 74%D 18%A 8%
11.22X5.5529.10
xG3.8GG64%
1 ✓Sokol Lanžhot to win74% · @1.22
FT
Cray Wanderers
Stockport County
23
H 8%D 18%A 74%
110.00X6.2521.22
xG3.0GG47%
2 ✓Stockport County to win74% · @1.22
FT
Toledo
Marchamalo
20
H 74%D 19%A 7%
11.22X4.90210.25
xG3.2GG53%
1 ✓Toledo to win74% · @1.22
FT
Estrela
Benfica
23
H 8%D 19%A 73%
111.00X6.5021.22
xG3.5GG60%
2 ✓Benfica to win73% · @1.22
FT
Al Sahel
Al Kuwait
03
H 9%D 18%A 73%
111.00X6.4021.20
xG3.6GG50%
2 ✓Al Kuwait to win73% · @1.20
FT
Phönix Lübeck
Hamburger SV II
21
H 72%D 17%A 10%
11.30X5.0027.15
xG3.7GG61%
1 ✓Phönix Lübeck to win72% · @1.30
FT
Deportivo Saprissa
Puntarenas FC
21
H 72%D 18%A 10%
11.30X4.5027.50
xG2.9GG51%
1 ✓Deportivo Saprissa to win72% · @1.30
FT
Vegalta Sendai
Ventforet Kofu
51
H 72%D 17%A 11%
11.36X4.7527.50
xG2.8GG52%
1 ✓Vegalta Sendai to win72% · @1.36
FT
Petrojet
Delphi
20
H 72%D 18%A 11%
11.22X5.3029.90
xG3.4GG59%
1 ✓Petrojet to win72% · @1.22
FT
Alessandria
Celle Varazze
10
H 71%D 20%A 9%
11.33X4.5027.40
xG2.8GG50%
1 ✓Alessandria to win71% · @1.33
FT
North District
Kowloon City
21
H 71%D 19%A 10%
11.30X4.9526.80
xG3.4GG60%
1 ✓North District to win71% · @1.30
FT
APEA
Polemidion
01
H 71%D 19%A 10%
11.34X4.2527.80
xG2.4GG48%
1 ✗APEA to win71% · @1.34
FT
Tadamon Sour
Al Ansar
34
H 9%D 20%A 71%
17.41X4.1021.37
xG2.9GG54%
2 ✓Al Ansar to win71% · @1.37
FT
Sokol Zápy
Chrudim
30
H 71%D 21%A 8%
11.24X5.2528.00
xG3.4GG61%
1 ✓Sokol Zápy to win71% · @1.24
FT
Zenit
FC Rostov
22
H 71%D 20%A 9%
11.41X4.6528.50
xG2.8GG51%
1 ✗Zenit to win71% · @1.41
FT
Al Faisaly
Shabab Al Ordon
00
H 71%D 21%A 8%
11.30X4.7527.50
xG2.6GG49%
1 ✗Al Faisaly to win71% · @1.30
FT
Spartak Moscow
Akron
21
H 71%D 17%A 13%
11.26X6.40211.00
xG3.1GG58%
1 ✓Spartak Moscow to win71% · @1.26
FT
Apollon Pontou
Panserraikos
21
H 9%D 20%A 70%
19.50X4.3321.30
xG2.4GG45%
2 ✗Panserraikos to win70% · @1.30
FT
Nautico Recife
CRB
03
H 9%D 20%A 70%
18.00X4.7521.38
xG2.9GG53%
2 ✓CRB to win70% · @1.38
FT
RSV Eintracht
Erzgebirge Aue
12
H 11%D 18%A 70%
16.30X4.7921.35
xG3.2GG60%
2 ✓Erzgebirge Aue to win70% · @1.35
FT
Hong Kong FC
Eastern
21
H 18%D 12%A 70%
14.95X4.9521.40
xG3.6GG64%
2 ✗Eastern to win70% · @1.40
What makes a "must-win" team
Here you will find the day's clearest favourites that are still worth backing: teams our model gives at least a 62% chance of winning, priced between 1.20 and 1.90. Very short favourites are left out on purpose – one upset at 1.05 wipes out the profit from many wins.
How to use the list
- Read the percentage, not just the name: a 75% favourite and a 63% favourite are very different bets.
- Away favourites are rarer on this list – when one appears, the numbers are usually convincing.
- Many people pair two or three of these into a double or treble. Each extra team lowers the chance of the whole slip, so keep it short.
For ready-made combinations see our 2 odds and the daily accumulator, or the banker of the day for our single strongest pick. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+ only.
Questions & answers
What is a must-win team?
A team our model gives at least a 62% chance of winning, at a bookmaker price between 1.20 and 1.90 – strong favourites that still pay something.
Why not just the biggest favourites?
A 1.05 favourite pays almost nothing and one upset wipes out many wins. We leave those out on purpose.
