Must-win teams tomorrow
Teams our model gives at least a 62% chance of winning, at bookmaker prices between 1.20 and 1.90. Strongest first.
Last 30 days: 84% of our top 1X2 picks won (250 of 299). Full record
Roma W
Servette Chênois W
H 74%D 18%A 8%
11.20X6.50213.00
xG4.1GG64%
1Roma W to win74% · @1.20
Leicester
Walsall
H 72%D 19%A 10%
11.33X5.0026.25
xG4.5GG67%
1Leicester to win72% · @1.33
Grimsby
Nottingham Forest U21
H 71%D 17%A 11%
11.36X4.7526.25
xG3.4GG65%
1Grimsby to win71% · @1.36
Redcar Athletic
Bamber Bridge
H 70%D 19%A 11%
11.30X4.8526.80
xG3.3GG59%
1Redcar Athletic to win70% · @1.30
Inter Milano W
Manchester City W
H 12%D 18%A 69%
17.50X5.0021.36
xG3.1GG57%
2Manchester City W to win69% · @1.36
Curzon Ashton
Ilkeston Town
H 69%D 18%A 13%
11.34X4.5026.50
xG3.0GG59%
1Curzon Ashton to win69% · @1.34
Crawley Town
Brentford U21
H 69%D 18%A 13%
11.44X4.5025.00
xG4.1GG69%
1Crawley Town to win69% · @1.44
Real Madrid W
Paris FC W
H 68%D 17%A 15%
11.40X5.0026.50
xG3.3GG60%
1Real Madrid W to win68% · @1.40
Oxford United
Cheltenham
H 68%D 21%A 11%
11.28X5.2527.50
xG3.8GG61%
1Oxford United to win68% · @1.28
Stockport County
Tranmere
H 68%D 21%A 12%
11.33X4.7526.25
xG3.6GG54%
1Stockport County to win68% · @1.33
Salisbury
Braintree
H 67%D 22%A 11%
11.36X4.7526.50
xG3.3GG60%
1Salisbury to win67% · @1.36
Gloucester City
Malvern Town
H 67%D 21%A 12%
11.39X4.4025.70
xG3.5GG61%
1Gloucester City to win67% · @1.39
Whitehawk
Welling United
H 13%D 20%A 66%
15.55X4.3021.41
xG3.2GG58%
2Welling United to win66% · @1.41
Junior
Cucuta
H 66%D 21%A 13%
11.75X4.0524.75
xG2.8GG54%
1Junior to win66% · @1.75
Huddersfield
Liverpool U21
H 66%D 16%A 18%
11.28X5.0027.50
xG4.0GG67%
1Huddersfield to win66% · @1.28
Eastbourne Borough
Dulwich Hamlet
H 65%D 22%A 13%
11.60X3.8824.20
xG3.1GG60%
1Eastbourne Borough to win65% · @1.60
Bury Town
Bishop's Stortford
H 65%D 18%A 17%
11.52X4.3525.00
xG3.2GG60%
1Bury Town to win65% · @1.52
Bradford
York
H 65%D 14%A 20%
11.73X4.1023.70
xG3.4GG63%
1Bradford to win65% · @1.73
Plymouth
Swindon Town
H 65%D 18%A 17%
11.42X4.7525.25
xG3.6GG65%
1Plymouth to win65% · @1.42
Bath City
Taunton Town
H 64%D 19%A 17%
11.69X3.7623.78
xG3.2GG60%
1Bath City to win64% · @1.69
Uxbridge
Hanwell Town
H 64%D 21%A 15%
11.71X3.7223.72
xG2.9GG57%
1Uxbridge to win64% · @1.71
Stevenage
Fulham U21
H 64%D 21%A 15%
11.38X4.5026.25
xG4.4GG65%
1Stevenage to win64% · @1.38
Chertsey Town
Chichester City
H 64%D 14%A 22%
11.74X3.8223.50
xG3.5GG66%
1Chertsey Town to win64% · @1.74
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
H 24%D 13%A 64%
13.20X4.1021.80
xG3.9GG67%
2Milton Keynes Dons to win64% · @1.80
Paradou AC
JSM Skikda
H 64%D 22%A 15%
11.80X3.1024.20
xG2.4GG41%
1Paradou AC to win64% · @1.80
What makes a "must-win" team
Here you will find the day's clearest favourites that are still worth backing: teams our model gives at least a 62% chance of winning, priced between 1.20 and 1.90. Very short favourites are left out on purpose – one upset at 1.05 wipes out the profit from many wins.
How to use the list
- Read the percentage, not just the name: a 75% favourite and a 63% favourite are very different bets.
- Away favourites are rarer on this list – when one appears, the numbers are usually convincing.
- Many people pair two or three of these into a double or treble. Each extra team lowers the chance of the whole slip, so keep it short.
For ready-made combinations see our 2 odds and the daily accumulator, or the banker of the day for our single strongest pick. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+ only.
Questions & answers
What is a must-win team?
A team our model gives at least a 62% chance of winning, at a bookmaker price between 1.20 and 1.90 – strong favourites that still pay something.
Why not just the biggest favourites?
A 1.05 favourite pays almost nothing and one upset wipes out many wins. We leave those out on purpose.
